نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
2 استاد، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران
3 استادیار، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a stochastic network that utilizes the Beta-PERT distribution function. It was developed in the late 1950s to account for uncertainty in project management. However, due to simplifying assumptions and optimistic estimates resulting from considering the critical path alone, this method has been criticized by many researchers. New methods have been introduced that are believed to better model the actual completion time of projects. In this study, the Importance Sampling (IS) method was used for managing construction projects. Reliability methods allow for any desired distribution function to be considered for activity times, and all available paths for project completion can be taken into account using reliability systems. Five common numerical examples were investigated using importance sampling, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), and PERT. The probability of failure (defined here as the probability of not completing the project within a certain deadline) was compared. The results indicated a significant difference in the results of the PERT and first-order reliability method compared to Monte Carlo simulation and importance sampling. Additionally, the importance sampling method had the least difference (17%) among the studied methods compared to Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, this study shows that Monte Carlo simulation and importance sampling methods are more reliable for accurately estimating the probability of project completion compared to PERT and first-order reliability methods.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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